Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Welcome to the Golden Sportsbooks blog, your go-to source for sharp MMA insights, betting tips, and in-depth fight breakdowns. UFC 319 is set to light up the United Center in Chicago on Saturday, August 16, 2025, with a stacked card headlined by a middleweight title clash that has the MMA world buzzing.
Champion Dricus Du Plessis defends his belt against the undefeated phenom Khamzat Chimaev in what could be one of the most explosive matchups of the year. With prelims kicking off at 6:00 PM CDT on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card at 9:00 PM CDT on ESPN+ PPV, this event promises fireworks from top to bottom.
At Golden Sportsbooks, we've scoured the latest odds, fighter stats, recent performances, and expert opinions to bring you our predictions. Whether you're eyeing moneyline bets, props, or parlays, we've got you covered. Remember, betting should be fun and responsible—always gamble within your means. Let's dive into the full card analysis!
Main Card Breakdown
The main card features five high-stakes bouts, with odds reflecting tight contests and clear favorites. We've incorporated data from UFC stats, recent form, and consensus picks from analysts to inform our selections.
Middleweight Title Bout: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Dricus Du Plessis (23-2-0, +200) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0, -250)
Du Plessis, the South African champ, enters with a perfect 10-0 UFC run, showcasing durable cardio and a versatile skill set (6.12 significant strikes per minute, 50% accuracy). His recent KO of Israel Adesanya highlights his power, but he absorbs strikes (50.6% defense) and has faced takedown pressure before.
Chimaev, the Chechen powerhouse, is undefeated with elite wrestling (4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, 46.7% accuracy) and submissions (2.77 avg.). His last win over Robert Whittaker was dominant, but questions linger about his cardio in five-rounders after health issues.
Golden Sportsbooks Pick: Khamzat Chimaev by Submission (Round 2). Chimaev's grappling overwhelms early, exploiting Du Plessis' 60% takedown defense. Experts like Belal Muhammad and Caio Borralho lean Chimaev, though Israel Adesanya predicts a late Du Plessis finish.
Betting Tip: Chimaev by submission at +190 offers excellent value.
| Metric | Du Plessis | Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Striking Accuracy | 50.6% | 70.9% |
| Takedown Avg. | 2.55 | 4.31 |
| Recent Form (Last 5) | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Finish Rate | 87% | 86% |
Featherweight Bout: Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
Lerone Murphy (16-0-1, +150) vs. Aaron Pico (13-4-0, -180)
Murphy, undefeated with crisp boxing (58% striking accuracy), has won his last six, including a decision over Edson Barboza. His takedown defense (75%) is solid, but he lacks Pico's wrestling pedigree. Pico, a former Bellator standout making his UFC debut, brings explosive power (9 KOs) and elite grappling from his wrestling background.
Golden Sportsbooks Pick: Aaron Pico by Decision. Pico's pressure and ground control wear down Murphy late. Odds favor Pico, aligning with expert breakdowns.
Betting Tip: Pico ML at -180 for a safe parlay leg.
| Metric | Murphy | Pico |
|---|---|---|
| Striking Accuracy | 58% | 55% |
| Takedown Defense | 75% | 70% |
| Recent Form (Last 5) | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Finish Rate | 44% | 85% |
Welterweight Bout: Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates
Geoff Neal (16-6-0, +200) vs. Carlos Prates (21-7-0, -250)
Neal's southpaw striking (52% accuracy) and power (10 KOs) make him dangerous, but recent losses to top wrestlers expose his 70% takedown defense. Prates, on a hot streak with 16 KOs, blends Muay Thai with solid grappling.
Golden Sportsbooks Pick: Carlos Prates by KO (Round 2). Prates' volume and finishing ability exploit Neal's chin. Consensus picks lean Prates heavily.
Betting Tip: Prates KO prop at +200.
| Metric | Neal | Prates |
|---|---|---|
| Striking Accuracy | 52% | 55% |
| Takedown Avg. | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Recent Form (Last 5) | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Finish Rate | 75% | 90% |
Middleweight Bout: Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
Jared Cannonier (18-8-0, +160) vs. Michael Page (23-3-0, -190)
Cannonier's durability and power (11 KOs) shine in decisions, but at 41, his speed may falter against Page's flashy karate (58% accuracy, 13 KOs). Page's UFC debut win over Kevin Holland showed his elusiveness.
Golden Sportsbooks Pick: Michael Page by Decision. Page's movement frustrates Cannonier, leading to a points win. Analysts favor Page's style.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 rounds at -150.
| Metric | Cannonier | Page |
|---|---|---|
| Striking Accuracy | 52% | 58% |
| Takedown Defense | 70% | 65% |
| Recent Form (Last 5) | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Finish Rate | 72% | 70% |
Flyweight Bout: Tim Elliott vs. Kai Asakura
Tim Elliott (21-13-1, +270) vs. Kai Asakura (21-5-0, -350)
Elliott's grappling (7 subs) and veteran experience are assets, but his 48% striking accuracy and age (38) could hinder him. Asakura, a RIZIN champ, brings knockout power (13 KOs) and speed.
Golden Sportsbooks Pick: Kai Asakura by KO (Round 1). Asakura's striking overwhelms Elliott early. Odds and picks heavily back the newcomer.
Betting Tip: Asakura ML at -350.
| Metric | Elliott | Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| Striking Accuracy | 48% | 55% |
| Submission Avg. | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| Recent Form (Last 5) | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Finish Rate | 50% | 76% |
Prelims Breakdown
The prelims offer value bets with underdogs poised for upsets.
Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0, +190) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0, -235)
Meerschaert's submission game (29 subs) thrives against strikers like Oleksiejczuk (15 KOs, poor sub defense).
Pick: Gerald Meerschaert by Submission (Round 2).
Middleweight: Baysangur Susurkaev vs. Eric Nolan
Baysangur Susurkaev (9-0-0, -1000) vs. Eric Nolan (8-3-0, +600)
Susurkaev's undefeated record and finishes make him a lock.
Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev by KO (Round 1).
Women's Strawweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
Jessica Andrade (26-14-0, +125) vs. Loopy Godinez (13-5-0, -150)
Andrade's power (10 KOs) edges Godinez's wrestling.
Pick: Jessica Andrade by Decision.
Lightweight: Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez
Chase Hooper (16-3-1, -350) vs. Alexander Hernandez (16-8-0, +270)
Hooper's subs (8) exploit Hernandez's vulnerabilities.
Pick: Chase Hooper by Submission (Round 2).
Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
Edson Barboza (24-12-0, -140) vs. Drakkar Klose (15-3-1, +120)
Barboza's kicks vs. Klose's wrestling.
Pick: Drakkar Klose by Decision.
Middleweight: Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Bryan Battle (13-2-0, -170) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2, +140)
Battle's well-rounded game prevails.
Pick: Bryan Battle by Decision.
Early Prelims Quick Hits
- Women's Flyweight: Karine Silva (18-5-0, -220) vs. Dione Barbosa (8-3-0, +180): Silva by Decision.
- Flyweight: Alibi Idiris (10-0-0) vs. Joseph Morales (12-2-0): Idiris by KO (Round 1).
Final Thoughts and Betting Strategy
UFC 319 is a bettor's dream with favorites like Chimaev and Asakura offering parlay potential, while underdogs like Du Plessis and Neal provide upset value. Our top parlay: Chimaev, Pico, Prates (+150 payout). For props, target finishes in the main event and Asakura KO.
Stay tuned to Golden Sportsbooks for live updates and post-fight analysis. Odds via ESPN and subject to change—check your sportsbook. Gamble responsibly!
Disclaimer: Predictions are for entertainment; consult a professional for betting advice.